Internet World 2010 - Get big, get niche or get out!...

As the homepage for Internet World 2000 announced in lurid pink and yellow... It's big - It's brash - It's bright - It's beyond...  From my recollections of that time, this is an excellent summary of the atmosphere and sentiment of that dotcom boom peak period.

Click to compare and contrast IW2000 to IW2010

I remember this particular show well as I attended it in a somewhat 'shellshocked' state as I was immersed in the launch of ntlworld - NTL's UK wide 'free Internet service'.  I was also working on NTL's shopbuilder project at the time with Intershop and remember the whole buzz about eCommerce, which again, is emphasised by the exhibitors back in 2000.  So many ideas before their time! - or at least before broadband made the user experiences vaguely tolerable.

Visiting IW2010 on Wednesday, I got a sense of deja-vu, particularly with all the talk about eCommerce. The recession has clearly put much more focus on the benefits of selling online but, given this is 2010 and the height of the social media boom, today's eCommerce comes with a Social Media twist or two.

There's talk of 'Web 2.0' eTailers usurping the long-standing 'Web 1.0' stalwarts by combining the latest WCM, Social Media and eCommerce developments to provide far better user experiences and greater conversion levels. I can see sense in this as the battles between the Rich Internet Application frameworks and HTML5 make online shopping a more pleasurable interactive experience and the growth in user generated commentary and reviews continues to help transcend the marketing bullshit. There's certainly opportunity to implement eCommerce and integrate its vital content processes better, easier and faster than before.

Comparing the lists of Content Management System vendors from IW2000 to IW2010 shows I have observed the following...

• The success of the .NET Framework over the last 5 years.  By my reckoning, at least 8 of the CMS vendors listed are focused on .NET based applications. Although the PHP versus .NET debates often reach a stalemate, one thing that is generally agreed on is that .NET based sites are often faster. When you see that 'speed' is an increasingly important measure in Google rankings this could take on even greater significance for those who's search rankings are vital.
• The 'Class of 2000' has moved on. Of the content management orientated vendors who exhibited 10 years ago, only the original Mediasurface product offering had presence a decade later via Alterian's heavy and visible presence at the 2010 show.  Consolidation has played a big part in this in the upper tier and growth of the mid-market has made many of the original CMS vendors irrelevant at this type of show.
• Few remain independent. Of the exhibitors in 2000, only Percussion and Day remain in their original independent states - but for how long?
• The rise of Scandinavian and arrival of Eastern European vendors. The Danes and Swedes are coming to dominate the CMS mid-market through very successful offerings like EPiServer and Sitecore. A younger generation is showing through now too, with Sweden's Onclick, Estonia's Modera and Czechoslovakia's Kentico (growing in popularity in the UK partner base)

So, as we progress through the next decade to 2020 and Content Management becomes more commoditised through the growth of Open Source, development of infrastructure beasts like SharePoint and gathering 'Clouds' of different shapes and sizes - how will the 2010 exhibitors fare and will they still be standing/showing in 2020?

Based on the last ten years, the odds are against it. In commoditised markets it's said that only the 'big' and 'niche' survive. I've made some wild speculation below on what path the 'class of 2010' might take...

What are your predictions for IW2020? Will we even be talking about an 'Internet World' in 10 years or will it have evolved into something very different? And will we still be talking about a 'Content Management' industry or will long heralded mass consolidation and commoditisation prevail?